Monthly Outlook

 Last updated

Summary

Fine start before turning unsettled

As high pressure drifts further eastwards over the next couple of days, wetter and windier conditions will slowly spread their way south and east, across much of the UK through the rest of this week. High pressure should reappear this weekend but through Sunday night into Monday, a strong cold front will cross the UK bringing blustery, wet and cool conditions through next week.

Towards the end of September, into the first week of October, a storm track will sit to the north-east of the UK and high pressure to the south and west. As a result, temperatures and precipitation are expected to be near average. The second week of October will feature low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south. Temperatures should be near normal, but it will likely be a little wetter and windier than normal too.

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High pressure builds at first

A dry and mild Wednesday for most as high pressure moves slowly off to the south-east. However, an approaching front will bring some showery rain to the north-west, which is expected to turn heavier and steadier through the evening and night.

Thursday will continue dry and mild for the south-east with sunny spells whilst a band of rain, associated with a cold front, crosses the northern UK.

Friday will be dry for most with sunny spells. However, it will be a little cooler and for the south-eastern quarter of the country, Thursday's front will bring outbreaks of rain.

Saturday will be generally dry with sunny spells. The one exception may be the south coast where some rain may move in from the south. However, there is a lot of uncertainty with this at the moment. Sunday will be dry for most, but showers will move into the north-west late in the day, accompanied by strengthening winds.

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Blustery, wet and cool to start, but drier later

A strong cold front bringing outbreaks of rain, will sweep its way south on Monday. In the wake of this system, it will turn cool and blustery with showers through Tuesday and Wednesday. The showers will be more frequent in the east as a moderate to strong north to north-easterly wind is expected.

Confidence does dip through the second half of the week. Thursday will see a mix of sunny spells and showers. A drier westerly flow develops into the weekend as high pressure becomes a little more dominant once more. However, there will still be some showers in northern regions during this period.

Temperatures are expected to be below normal through the first half of the week before returning to near-normal by the end of the week.

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Seasonal temperatures, unsettled in places

Confidence is low through the first full week of October. High pressure is expected to be centred in the North Atlantic. There is a storm track favoured from Greenland to the Norwegian Sea and into NW Russia.

Temperatures, precipitation, and winds are expected be near seasonal averages. There is the chance of a more robust high pressure system over Europe, which could result in a more settled pattern to areas south of Scotland. Confidence remains low for the second week of October.

A storm track is favoured from Iceland to Scandinavia with high pressure over southern Europe. Near-seasonal temperatures are favoured but with a wetter and windier pattern.

Further ahead

We will look further into October for more detail on the weather pattern through autumn.